Talk Back

[malabar]

subtitle: The power of thinking without thinking

Blink focuses on the human ability of unconscious rapid decision making, or thin-slicing. Gladwell argues that people can often reach an accurate decision with only a few seconds of information gathering. This is counterintuitive to our scientific-based education, in which we are taught to believe that more information is better.

Sculpture experts spot a fake and feel uneasy even though they couldn’t explain why. A psychologist, with quick observation of a videotape, can predict with 90% accuracy which marriage will last. Another psychologist can read people’s minds from the slightest facial expressions. Paul Van Riper, an experienced soldier commanding the bad guys’ team in a war game against Pentagon’s most comprehensive data and super-powerful computers, decimates the good guys with unpredictable strategy and attacks. Traders on the New York Stock Exchange meet up with high-ranking members of the military and find kindred spirits - both have learned to make good split-second decisions. All of these demonstrate the power of thin-slicing.

Gladwell also includes examples where thin-slicing didn’t work, where our preconceived notions affect our judgment. We have unconscious biases on appearance: height, race, gender; even our temper, violent or benign. Four cops fired 41 bullets and killed a young black man. Racism? Not really. Just poor split-second decision making, resulting from badly thought out procedure. Millions of voters back in 1920 elected Warren G. Harding because of his presidential good looks; he turned out to be one of the worst presidents ever.

Gladwell gives us lots to think about. While there is no magic formula to know when thin-slicing will work and when it won't, it seems tied to experience and being able to keep a clear head (no surprises there). Police trainees who were able to roleplay confrontational situations (complete with paintguns) gradually learned to keep their cool; the psychiatrist who could read minds spent years compiling images of the smallest facial movements and learning how they could be combined. It seems that the traditional methods of information gathering are still very important in the training phase, but are less so to experts in the heat of the moment. It looks like the best strategy is to gather information and gain experience first, so that when push comes to shove, one's instincts will be trustworthy.